Early this week I appeared on a panel discussing gold at the world’s largest exchange traded fund (ETF) conference, which took place in Hollywood, Florida. Given that the conference was being held in a picturesque setting on the beach, there were plenty of opportunities to be distracted by sun, surf, and sand. (Full Disclosure: My two favorites were the Lotta [...]

Stocks are on quite a roll as 2012 gets underway. The S&P 500 is up more than 5% already — it’s on an annualized pace of 130% — which is its best start since 1997, according to Bloomberg. And stocks received a further lift yesterday afternoon following the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed extended its pledge to keep short-term [...]

On Thursday, we initiated a position in the First Trust Natural Gas ETF for our Dynamic Moderate, Dynamic Appreciation, and Dynamic Ultra-Appreciation clients. The price of natural gas — used by millions of homeowners for heating — reached a new 10-year low last week at $2.32 per MMBTUs (1 million British Thermal Units), or 1 cubic foot. The price was [...]

In my book, Buy and Hold is Dead (Again), I discuss in some detail Woody Brock’s views on the logical justification for active portfolio management. Brock lays out three ways active managers can outperform. First, they can better forecast structural changes in the economy. Second, they can better forecast how investors will react to changes in the news. And third, [...]

One of the things we’ve been defending against over the last few quarters is a rise in system risk. In particular the European banking system has been under fire, and for many months we’ve been watching sub surface risks rising in the credit markets. Bank lending is what moves world growth, so the idea that a banking crisis could lead [...]