While Americans have always been a mobile people, retirees aren’t moving to new places as frequently as they have in the past. According to census data, between 2010 and 2011, just 3% of those age 65 and older relocated. A lot of 401(k)s have taken a hit, the housing market fell, and many of those who planned to retire are delaying that move. This has resulted in the lowest level of migration for those 65 and older since the end of World War II.
Markets are continuing to react and adjust, mostly in a negative manner, to the Federal Reserve’s announcement about their intention to wind down their quantitative easing program later this year. Volatility, as it is known to do, popped back up in fairly short order after a steady decline through the first five months of the year. The S&P 500 Index is now off by more than -5% from its high on May 21, and interest rates on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury are high by almost 1% from their low on May 2nd. While corrections and pullbacks are always unsettling, the moves so far in the U.S. have been fairly run of the mill. After all, the S&P is still up more than 10% on the year, and bonds, at 2.58%, are still at extraordinarily low levels.
As a longtime observer of portfolio manager performance, I have noticed a few common warning signs that there might be trouble brewing with a money manager. They are, in no real order of importance:
1. When there is a major change in the management team of a fund
2. When a specific time frame of historical portfolio performance is no longer reported by the firm
3. When a firm changes the benchmark for its performance reporting
Today you’ll hear the term ‘triple witching’ a lot in the media — it refers to four Fridays a year when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire on the same day. The expiration can lead to unusual volatility in markets as traders scramble to offset positions. This could make things quite bumpy, but I think there may be a more important triple witch – one that has provided the catalyst for a deep correction in U.S. markets.
In the world of technical analysis, the symmetrical triangle represents a battle between bulls and bears. Neither side gains ground while the market forms this pattern, and the result over time is lower highs and higher lows. However, the direction of the next major move can be determined following a valid breakout of the pattern.
We recently received a question at our website from a troubled consumer of financial advice who wondered how he might compare Pinnacle’s wealth management process to that used by his current advisor. That’s an excellent question. After all, there is no Consumer Reports for financial advisors where firms are evaluated by objective and independent experts. The best we can do is recommend a process of evaluation that will give an educated consumer confidence in choosing the right financial advisor.
Over the past few weeks our proprietary quantitative model has experienced a significant decline, falling from an almost unequivocally bullish reading of 7.45/10 to a lower neutral reading of 4.33/10. The deterioration in the overall score was caused by a broad-based decline in several important variables including, among others, the relative momentum in early cyclical, late cyclical, and defensive sectors, the steepening of the yield curve, the growth-sensitive Australian dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate, and implied volatility.
The overdue market correction analysts and pundits have been waiting for may have arrived with the breakdown of the S&P. It has been a two stage process, with Japan breaking first and the U.S. and the rest of the world following suit. One of the interesting aspects of this correction is that bond yields are moving higher as stock prices have been moving lower. In Japan the focus has been on a bond yield rising in a nation with very high debt levels. In the U.S. yields have been going up too, and the buzz has been that the Federal Reserve may start “tapering” down their $85 billion bond buying spree (known as QE Infinity).
You probably remember the 1960s sitcom Green Acres, and its catchy theme song:
Green Acres is the place for me,
Farm living is the life for me.
Land spreading out so far and wide,
Keep Manhattan just give me that countryside.