Inside the Investment Committee 2018

Inside the Investment Committee 2018

On Saturday, March 17, 2018, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s investment team offered their thoughts on the market, outlined upcoming investment trends and wealth preservation strategies, and explained our approach to risk management. Here’s what they covered: 0:00 – Ken Solow: Volatility and Risk 20:56 – Rick Vollaro: A Time of Gradual Transition 39:08 – Sauro Locatelli:…

How To Set Investment Goals

A sound investment plan begins by determining your objectives while understanding any limitations or constraints that may exist. While most objectives are long-term, a plan must be designed to persevere through changing market environments and be able to adjust for unseen events along the way. If you have multiple goals then each of these goals…

Bearish Tendencies and Silver Linings

2015 had many twists and turns, but from a financial market perspective, it was effectively a road to nowhere when looking across a variety of asset classes. In U.S. equity markets, large company stocks (large cap) barely moved as just a few sectors and stocks were big winners. In the broad market, many stocks performed far worse than the large cap averages and gave investors the false impression that the market was generally flat. On the contrary, a broader measure of the market which consists of 1700 equally weighted stocks was down roughly 7% on the year, and helps to highlight how skewed the major indices were, due to just a few large companies that had good years.

A Time for Caution

The third quarter came in like a lamb and went out like a lion, as the return of volatility hit risk assets hard across the globe. As in previous quarters, emerging market stocks and commodities suffered double digit declines as markets continue to deal with the end of the commodity super-cycle and the mix of structural and cyclical problems reverberating throughout the emerging market complex.  But the big news of the quarter was a catch up in developed markets that had previously appeared impervious to the problems that were festering in the developing world.

No Pain, No Gain – Taking the Long View on the Dollar and Commodities

“Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that price is what you pay; value is what you get. Whether we are talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down” – Warren Buffett

We pointed out in our recent quarterly commentary that a major countertrend movement was brewing in both the dollar and commodity patch. In other words, the primary trends for the dollar (up) and commodities (down) might have hit a point where their respective gains and losses were overdone in the short-term, but we have a firm conviction that the strong dollar and weak commodity thesis should continue to dominate the backdrop in the long-term.

Pondering Halftime Adjustments

At the beginning of the year, we wrote about an aging bull market that we thought could be ridden, but with the caveat that one wouldn’t want to take too much risk given the magnitude of the move, current valuation levels in the U.S., and an overall evidence profile that was clearly mixed with pockets of both strength and weakness. When weighing the evidence, our dashboards offered no reason to reach for additional risk this late in the cycle, but instead we tried to focus on some big picture themes that could help us find attractive opportunities to position for.

How Are The Year’s Investment Themes Playing Out?

At the beginning of the year, we identified several themes that might drive investment markets in 2015. Forecasting is a hazardous process, but it’s part of the job for tactical managers who have the freedom to move portfolios according to changes in macro and market conditions.

I recently reviewed our themes for the year (written up in detail in our latest quarterly), and made a few notes regarding how those themes are playing out.