Low Conviction Forecasts

There seems to be a misunderstanding about generating an investment forecast that presumes that active portfolio managers always have a reliable one in their back pocket. Nothing could be further from the truth. Sometimes the forecast is as simple as “I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other.” Such a forecast actually…

Consumption Spending and the Second Derivative

My colleague, Carl Noble, recently wrote about the latest GDP numbers, and mentioned that we view them as mostly backward looking at Pinnacle.   Last Thursday, the March report on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is just geek speak for consumer spending, was released.  Consumer spending data always grabs our attention since spending is such an important driver…