Prior to the 2007 crash, very few investors thought that housing prices could fall, and even fewer believed that a decline in housing prices could be as long in duration or vicious in price as they’ve turned out to be. The silver lining to that cloud is that the crash brought the homebuilding shares down…
Behind closed doors U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that something needs to be done about the future cost of entitlement programs and our growing national debt. The secular bear market view holds that the U.S. will not be able to fix these issues politically and the problem will eventually be resolved…
Two articles by the Wall Street Journal’s Tom Lauricella, one of my favorite writers, came across my desk last week. With titles like “’Go Anywhere’ Goes Awry” and “Macro Funds Show Micro Returns,” the message was clear: Go Anywhere mutual funds and global macro hedge funds are having a tough time earning positive returns in…
Back in the second quarter our theme was “consolidation and continuation”, meaning we were looking for a market correction that would lead into a continuation of the bull market (See April 20, 2012 “Looking Ahead to Second Quarter”). Well, the correction we were looking for clearly unfolded, taking the S&P 500 down about 10% between…
Recently I was interviewed by Money Magazine on the topic of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). I pointed out that ETFs are an excellent investment tool to implement a sector rotation strategy, and that sector rotation was completely different from the Morningstar Style-Box approach to equity selection. Morningstar is perhaps the best-known research firm specializing in…
We continue to position portfolios at neutral levels of risk, believing that the substantial downside risks (Europe, the looming fiscal cliff, an economic slowdown, etc.) are balanced by the growing possibility that global central banks may soon inject more stimulus that could propel risk markets higher again — similar to what’s happened the past two…
As recently as this week Spanish bond yields had been roiling the markets as they crossed the 7% threshold that is considered the point of no return. With system risk rising anew, the onus was on policy makers to get moving in another attempt to bring down spreads and calm global markets. In the last…
I just returned from a trip to Canada that took me from Niagara Falls to Toronto to Montreal to Old Quebec, and then back to the U.S. Our final stop before getting on the plane home was the Norman Rockwell museum in Brockton, Massachusetts. The museum owns hundreds of Rockwell’s original paintings, many of which…
A few weeks ago, I introduced you to the concept of pro-forma portfolios, and explained how we use them to estimate our current portfolios’ position in terms of volatility and beta. There is an Italian saying that could be translated as “to trust is good, not to trust is better.” While the pro-forma portfolios give…
A journalist once asked me what advice I’d give a 60-year old, about to retire. To be honest, I might as well have been asked to list the causes of the Civil War. From the perspective of a trained financial planner and the Chief Investment Officer of a private wealth management firm, the question is,…
