Spending Confounds, Confidence Plummets

Yesterday brought the latest income and spending report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. With spending still driving the U.S. economy, and arguably world growth, we watch these numbers closely. I’ve been increasingly bearish on the economy recently, but I have to admit that the print was surprisingly good, even when stripping out the effects…

What Goes Up…

Gold has been powering ahead and we watched in awe as our hedge worked fantastically over the last month. Stocks fell 17% but gold rose 21%, and this parabolic-esque move seemed too enticing to ignore. The price of gold stretched to 20% above its 200-day moving average which historically is a very overbought level. So…

Gaming the Jackson Hole Economic Summit

Last week a certain presidential candidate, speaking about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, said, “….printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous – or treasonous in my opinion.” I don’t know if he meant it was almost treasonous, or it was actually treasonous, but either way the…

Alpha Trades and Beta Trades

Rick Vollaro has introduced the investment team to a new term, “trading with a hatchet.” You can find his blog on the subject in this space (posted yesterday). I can assure you that we don’t let Rick get near anyone in volatile markets with a hatchet, especially when the markets are going in the wrong…

Alpha Trades and Beta Trades

Rick Vollaro has introduced the investment team to a new term, “trading with a hatchet.” I can assure you that we don’t let Rick get near anyone in volatile markets with a hatchet, especially when the markets are going in the wrong direction. However, his point was a good one. For the past month or…

Trading in Our Scalpel for a Hatchet

Somewhere during the last few weeks the weight of the evidence changed enough in our minds to declare that we are likely at the beginning of a new bear market. As always, the ultimate decision to call for a bear market was part quantitative, part qualitative, and part pure judgment. We wouldn’t single out any…