The Strange Language of Professional Investing

We are often cautioned not to use industry jargon when discussing investing with our clients. Deservedly so. Our role is not to baffle them with unintelligible words that make us seem like professionals by using a vocabulary that sounds impressive, even if the concepts that we are trying to explain are simple. But lately I’ve…

Crude Oil Momentum

Crude oil momentum is commonly defined as the rate of change in the price of oil ($/bbl) of a given quality and over a given time frame. Several independent research providers that we read on a regular basis look at the 252-day (or annual) rate of change in the price of WTI (Western Texas Intermediate…

Sector Rotation in Practice

Sector rotation, as defined by Investopedia, is the act of moving assets from one sector of the economy to another in hopes of profiting from the economic cycle. The 10 sectors of the S&P 500 are usually broken down into three categories: Early Cycle, Late Cycle and Non-Cyclical. Each category tends to perform better during…

Point and Figure of Natural Gas

Most people are familiar with a standard bar chart or line chart showing price versus time, but there are many different charting techniques that are used in Technical Analysis. Additional price and time charting techniques include Candlestick charting and EquiVolume charting but there is also a technique that ignores time. The technique is called Point…

Is the U.S. the Next Greece?

Yesterday Standard and Poor’s issued a warning about the health of the U.S. economy when they changed the outlook on U.S. debt from stable to negative. This created some big headlines, and no doubt contributed to some of the volatility on the day. So what does this mean, are we the next Greece?

Worrying About the Wrong Risk

Sometimes stuff happens to make you rethink the basic premise behind whatever you are doing. At least it happens to me all of the time. The latest “stuff” is my recent Op-Ed in the Baltimore Sun regarding the investment portfolio for the Maryland State Retirement Plan, and my upcoming speaking engagement for the “X-Conference,” a…

Defensives Starting to Lead

We spend a lot of time monitoring relative sector trends, since sector rotation is a big part of our investment strategy. One of the things we’ve been noticing lately is that traditionally defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Health Care have really started to outperform. Back in February and March when the S&P 500 declined…

Wow, Silver

The last time we wrote about silver was in January and at the time we warned that precious metals may be due for a breather. It turned out to be correct – in the very short term – as silver dropped roughly 13% during the month of January. However, that proved to be an extremely…