There is no doubt that risk management is an important part of long term investment returns. One only has to be familiar with the law of numbers to realize that the percentage return to recoup a loss is in excess of the loss itself (i.e., a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to fully recover).…
It was a great third quarter and I’m happy that we will soon be reporting some excellent numbers. Many of our clients tend to view their results in the context of their monthly statements, however, the quarter offers a different, longer-term (but not long term) view of the world. I thought I would offer a…
In September alone, the U.S. dollar was down 6% which is an annualized loss of 51%. This has led to big precious metals gains for the month as gold advanced 6% and silver soared 13%! The Federal Reserve has continued to monetize debt through permanent open market operations (POMOs) with dollar depreciation and asset inflation…
We’ve been cautious in our asset allocation since the middle of the summer, mostly due to the mix of poor business cycle dynamics and technical conditions that led us to put on some risk control measures. One of the many risks we faced during the summer was the prospect that markets were approaching the traditionally…
I sometimes have the privilege of hearing from my colleagues in the money management community about the views expressed in my book, Buy and Hold is Dead (Again), as well as other articles that have been published in a variety of professional magazines and journals. The most recent correspondence I’ve enjoyed is with Brian Schreiner,…
Improving confidence is typically seen as an important ingredient for a lasting economic expansion. This morning, the Conference Board released their monthly survey of consumer confidence, and it showed a decline to 48.5, the worst reading in seven months. Both of the main sub-components of the index fell to their lowest levels since February.
I just returned from a weekend in Atlantic City where I was the guest of a fellow Rotarian, David. David would scoff at the notion that he is a “high roller,” but he does have Seven Star status at Harrah’s casino in AC and without knowing the details, you have to spend a lot of…
Risk assets are flying, and it’s a feel good autumn Friday. One of the headlines that may quietly pass by on this feel good day is that the House Ways and Means committee approved legislation aimed at putting pressure on China to raise the value of its currency. One of the things this legislation would…
A few days ago Carl Noble wrote a blog about the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and some new language regarding deflation. The question some might have is why is deflation such a worrisome prospect?
In our monthly Investment Committee meeting this week, Ken brought up High Frequency Trading (HFT) as a topic of discussion (using the very witty title I have borrowed for this post). For those of you who do not know about HFT, it is a combination of trading strategies using computer algorithms to make profits on…
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