A Peek At The Market
While 2015 had its share of volatility and ended with virtually no gains in stocks, 2016 sprinted to the downside with volatile global markets, a bifurcated U.S. economy, and the first rate hike in a decade.
A Time for Caution
The third quarter came in like a lamb and went out like a lion, as the return of volatility hit risk assets hard across the globe. As in previous quarters, emerging market stocks and commodities suffered double digit declines as markets continue to deal with the end of the commodity super-cycle and the mix of…
Not All Bear Markets Are Created Equal
We’ve recently changed our cyclical view, as we don’t think the recent downdraft we’ve been experiencing is over yet. In fact, while many believe we’re experiencing a ‘garden variety pullback’ that provides us with a buying opportunity, we believe there’s a growing probability that the long running cyclical bull market may be transitioning into a…
What’s Going on with the Market?
It is hard to believe that in three trading days, the market has penned its first 10% correction in over 900 trading days. This decline may be an unfortunate reminder of the last bear market, and if you are feeling anxious about your portfolio, don’t worry—you have lots of company. In fact, the market has…
Thinking About the Dollar (Again)
Rates are hopping, markets are churning, and investment positions are coming under challenge. Today we’ll have an investment meeting that challenges one of the bigger themes that we have in our portfolio: investing a strong dollar bias.
A Turning Point in the Market?
Inflection Point: (N) – Mathematics – A point on a curve at which the curvature changes from convex to concave or vice versa. In describing our current thinking, I have to resort to an investment writing cliché where the financial markets are described as being “at an inflection point.” While the mathematical definition for an inflection point…
Emerging Markets Are Leading the Way Down
Markets are continuing to react and adjust, mostly in a negative manner, to the Federal Reserve’s announcement about their intention to wind down their quantitative easing program later this year. Volatility, as it is known to do, popped back up in fairly short order after a steady decline through the first five months of the…
The Markets and the ‘Triple Witch’
Today you’ll hear the term ‘triple witching’ a lot in the media — it refers to four Fridays a year when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire on the same day. The expiration can lead to unusual volatility in markets as traders scramble to offset positions. This could make things…
The Market Sends a Warning
Over the past few weeks our proprietary quantitative model has experienced a significant decline, falling from an almost unequivocally bullish reading of 7.45/10 to a lower neutral reading of 4.33/10. The deterioration in the overall score was caused by a broad-based decline in several important variables including, among others, the relative momentum in early cyclical,…
The Market Correction is Upon Us
The overdue market correction analysts and pundits have been waiting for may have arrived with the breakdown of the S&P. It has been a two stage process, with Japan breaking first and the U.S. and the rest of the world following suit. One of the interesting aspects of this correction is that bond yields are…
