Following the Beta Trail

In our Inside the Investment Committee presentation, I mentioned the great start to the year for high beta, domestic cyclical stocks (“high beta” refers to the volatility of the stock compared to the S&P 500). Small cap, semiconductors, miners, and energy stocks have more volatility when compared to the S&P 500 and therefore a higher…

An Oil Breakout and Pullback

Oil, and more specifically gasoline, has been in the news recently. Will $4 or $5 gasoline kill the consumer one more time? For the moment it seems the improving jobs picture is helping to insulate the consumer, but at some point there will come a choking point. With that said the price chart for oil…

A Bearish Divergence

On October 7, 2011, I wrote a blog post describing a bullish divergence forming in the Financial Sector SPDR. I used the Relative Strength Indicator to measure momentum and the price of the XLF to show that although the XLF made a new price low, the indicator did not confirm the drop. I could have…

Is Natural Gas Oversold?

On Thursday, we initiated a position in the First Trust Natural Gas ETF for our Dynamic Moderate, Dynamic Appreciation, and Dynamic Ultra-Appreciation clients. The price of natural gas — used by millions of homeowners for heating — reached a new 10-year low last week at $2.32 per MMBTUs (1 million British Thermal Units), or 1…

The First Five Days of January

The beginning of the year might tell you the future direction of the stock market. The five days of trading, or more specifically the direction of the move, has an amazing track record when the direction is up. The last 38 up ‘first five days of trading’ have been followed 33 times by remaining year…

Steel Magnolias

For the calendar year 2009, steel stocks have the led the stock market higher. Most stocks in the sector have posted well over 100% gains. To put those gains in context though the stocks still need to rise another 250% to reach their May 2008 peak levels. Steel stocks sold off heavily last year before…