‘Who Could Love Me?’

With Seinfeld on my mind, who could love Coal and Steel stocks right now? From April 2011, as measured by the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME), these stocks plummeted 50% through June 26. Analysts hate the fundamentals as China has stalled with continuing hard landing fears, costs are soaring for coal and steel…

Hints for Sunday

No, this post is not about how I desperately want an iPad for Father’s Day, nor about the resurgence of Tiger as he once again claims U.S. Open glory. It is about a small, distant country holding an election that should have no effect on the lives of Americans. Sunday marks the second go-round for…

Apple Island

The NASDAQ 100 is dominated by Apple. At 18% of the index, the Apple earnings report last night had a huge effect on the chart. From the end of March through yesterday, the index fell from 2795 to 2625, driven largely by a 14% drop in Apple. But after the massive earnings number reported last…

Following the Beta Trail

In our Inside the Investment Committee presentation, I mentioned the great start to the year for high beta, domestic cyclical stocks (“high beta” refers to the volatility of the stock compared to the S&P 500). Small cap, semiconductors, miners, and energy stocks have more volatility when compared to the S&P 500 and therefore a higher…

An Oil Breakout and Pullback

Oil, and more specifically gasoline, has been in the news recently. Will $4 or $5 gasoline kill the consumer one more time? For the moment it seems the improving jobs picture is helping to insulate the consumer, but at some point there will come a choking point. With that said the price chart for oil…

A Bearish Divergence

On October 7, 2011, I wrote a blog post describing a bullish divergence forming in the Financial Sector SPDR. I used the Relative Strength Indicator to measure momentum and the price of the XLF to show that although the XLF made a new price low, the indicator did not confirm the drop. I could have…

Is Natural Gas Oversold?

On Thursday, we initiated a position in the First Trust Natural Gas ETF for our Dynamic Moderate, Dynamic Appreciation, and Dynamic Ultra-Appreciation clients. The price of natural gas — used by millions of homeowners for heating — reached a new 10-year low last week at $2.32 per MMBTUs (1 million British Thermal Units), or 1…

The First Five Days of January

The beginning of the year might tell you the future direction of the stock market. The five days of trading, or more specifically the direction of the move, has an amazing track record when the direction is up. The last 38 up ‘first five days of trading’ have been followed 33 times by remaining year…